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Welcome to our February 2026 newsletter! This month, we’re coming to you from Pint House Burgers and Brews (at the old "Good Times" spot on the corner of Argonne and Mission) to break down exactly what is happening in the Spokane real estate market.

If you’ve been reading the headlines, you might be waiting for a crash. If you’ve been listening to rumors, you might be waiting for interest rates to plummet.

But if you look at the actual data, something else is happening entirely. We call it the "Silent Reset."

Here is your January 2026 market recap and a look at what to expect for the rest of the year.

The Numbers: January 2026 Recap

We finished 2025 with a median sale price just over $400,000. As we closed the books on January 2026, here is where we stand:

  • Median Sale Price: $388,000.

  • Price Year-Over-Year: Up 2% (though slightly down from Dec '25).

  • Inventory: Up 17% compared to January 2025.

  • New Sales: Flat year-over-year.

While inventory is up—which is great news for buyers—we aren't seeing the plummeting prices that usually signal a crash. Instead, we are seeing stability.

The "Silent Reset": Why Affordability is Returning

If you are waiting for prices to drop 20% like they did in 2008, you are likely waiting for a ghost. We simply don't have the excess supply to drive a crash (most sellers are locked in at sub-3% rates and aren't selling unless they have to).

However, affordability is improving naturally through a "Silent Reset."

For the first time in nearly 5 to 10 years, wage growth is outpacing real estate appreciation.

  • Home prices are staying relatively flat.

  • Interest rates have stabilized (and are lower than last year).

  • Wages are going up.

Here is a real-world example: We recently pre-approved a client who just received a raise. Because rates are stable and her income increased, her purchasing power jumped by $25,000. She can now afford the house she actually wants.

This isn't a dramatic "bubble burst"—it is a natural return to affordability without the chaos of a market collapse.

The Truth About Interest Rates & The New Fed Chair

Interest rates have been hovering around 6.1% to 6.2% on average. Keep in mind, Spokane rates are often slightly better than the national average, especially for FHA, VA, or USDA loans, which are solidly in the 5s.

Compared to January 2025 (when rates were ~7%), the cost of owning a home has dropped significantly. Between the rate drop and principal reductions, the cost to buy is arguably ~19% better for a buyer today than it was a year ago.

What about Kevin Warsh?

There is a lot of buzz about Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the next Fed Governor. Will he slash rates?

The reality is, Warsh is historically a "hawk," not a "dove." He has voted to raise rates in the past to combat inflation. While the current administration might hope for aggressive rate cuts, we don't expect Warsh to drop rates dramatically.

And that might be a good thing. Aggressively lowering rates or pumping money into the economy (like buying mortgage-backed securities) is exactly what caused 9% inflation in the first place. A steady hand now ensures long-term stability, even if it means rates stay flat for the next 3 to 5 years.

Good News for Investors

During the pandemic, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac added "loan-level price adjustments" that made it more expensive to buy investment properties and second homes.

We are now seeing private investors and banks step in to fill that gap. These private lenders don't have those same price adjustments, meaning rates for investment properties are becoming much more competitive than they were a year ago. If you’ve been on the sidelines, 2026 might be the time to jump back in.

The 2026 Outlook

We believe 2026 is going to be a good year for activity.

  • Don't expect massive appreciation.

  • Don't expect a crash.

  • Do expect natural affordability to return.

If you are waiting for a scary news headline to tell you it's time to buy, you’ll likely miss the boat. The reset is already happening—quietly.

Have questions about your home value or looking to buy in 2026? Reach out to us!

The Spokane Home Guy Group 📞 509-990-SOLD 💻 spokanehomeguy.com

Chimney Mortgage 📞 509-747-1300 💻 chimneyrockmortgage.com

Pint House Burgers & Brews

We chose to film this month's market update at a Spokane Valley Classic! - Pint House Burgers & Brews! If you're looking for a killer burger or to watch the game (really any game), you've come to the right place. Pint House has TV's across every wall, including the bar. There isn't a direction you could be seated without a screen visible; they have 26 - 82-inch TVs!

They're located right on Argonne & Mission

Not only do they have an abundance of TV screens, but they also have an extensive Burger menu! We each snagged a burger, Hoku, our camera woman, got the Impossible burger with a side salad, Rich with a Western Burger & tots, and Mike with the Black & Blue Burger (hold the mushrooms) & tots. If you're a potato lover, make sure to order 1 LB of your choice of Fries, Sweet Pot Fries, or Tots.

If you're in the Valley, be sure to give them a try! https://pinthousepub.com/

🍿 WATCH NEXT:

HOW TO BUY A HOUSE IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS: •    • How to Buy a House within the Next YEAR!  

HOW TO CHOOSE A MORTGAGE LENDER: •    • How to Choose a Mortgage Lender  

DECEMBER 2025 SPOKANE MARKET UPDATE: •    • Why Buying a House Just Got 14% CHEAPER 📉 ...  

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