April 03, 2026

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Rich Prasser and Mike Hogan (NMLS # 4538) in Spokane, WA, are giving us an update on all things Real Estate and Mortgage in the Spokane area at Hatch Beaker +! Burr in the Saranac Commons. Join them as they chat about how the fluctuation of oil prices will affect rates!

Welcome back to our monthly real estate and mortgage update! This month, we sat down at one of our favorite meeting spots, Hatch, Beaker + Burr, which is right off of Main Ave, to break down exactly what’s happening in the Spokane market.

Right now, there's a lot of noise out there. Between global conflicts, shifting interest rates, and inflation, you might be feeling a little uneasy about buying or selling. But when we actually look at the data, the local market is still telling a very stable story.

Here is everything you need to know about the Spokane housing market and mortgage landscape this month.

📈 Market Trends: More Stable Than It Feels

If you had to describe the market right now, it might feel unstable, but the data shows it's actually quite steady. We aren't seeing a massive amount of price movement. Instead, we're seeing a trend where the highest prices are starting to level out (plateau), while the lowest prices are getting higher.

The key takeaway: Price movement is compressing. We expect to see this plateau hold steady, or eventually break to the upside with an actual increase in appreciation.

Sales Activity is Heating Up: Seasonality is definitely becoming a factor as we move deeper into the year.

Closed Sales: We started the year with 406 closed sales in January. By March, we hit 554. While we are off by about 6% year-over-year, the trend is moving in a great direction.
Pending Offers: January saw 580 new pending offers. By the end of March, that number jumped to 835—which is a 15% increase year-over-year from March 2025!

📉 Mortgage Rates & The "Risk-Off" Trade

A major topic of conversation right now is how global events, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East, are impacting our wallets. Oil prices spiked roughly 33% over the last month. Normally, an increase in oil prices pushes interest rates up. We started March with rates firmly in the 5% range, and now we are back into the low 6s.

To be honest, rates could be much higher right now. So, what's keeping them from skyrocketing? The "Risk-Off" Trade.

When investors feel uneasy about riskier assets like oil, gold, or the stock market, they move their money into "safety assets" like bonds (including 10-year treasuries and mortgage-backed securities).

Demand for bonds increases.
The price of the bond goes up.
The yield (rate) goes down.

This safety trade is actively balancing out the inflation of oil prices, keeping mortgage rates from spiking too aggressively.

Note: Due to these factors, the Federal Reserve Bank lowering interest rates is likely off the table until at least the end of 2026.

🏠 Good News for First-Time Homebuyers

We are seeing a lot of first-time homebuyers entering the market right now. If you are a first-time buyer looking to use the Washington State Housing Finance Commission down payment assistance programs, we have great news: those rates have remained completely unchanged for the last month. You can get the exact same deal today that you would have gotten at the beginning of the year.

🏘️ Inventory: Are We Heading for a Crash?

If you're worried about a housing crash, let's look at the historical and current fundamentals of real estate.

Local Inventory is Up: We are currently up 20% year-over-year in local inventory (new listings and active listings without an offer). Right now, supply is slightly outpacing buyer demand, which is what is keeping our home prices so stable.

The National Housing Shortage: Whenever people talk about a market crash, they point to 2008. Fundamentally, 2008 was an oversupply issue—we built more homes than the country needed. Today, the opposite is true. Across the country, we are under-supplied by roughly 3.5 to 4 million homes just to keep pace with demand. While new housing starts are decent, we are nowhere near where we need to be to fill that deficit. This ongoing supply shortage is exactly what will keep housing prices stable or increasing over the long term.

Real Estate is a Safe Haven: If you look at the last 100+ years of real estate, there have only been seven years with double-digit declines. During Desert Storm in the early '90s, real estate was flat. In 2001, it was up 6%. Outside of the 2008/2009 anomaly, real estate remains an incredibly reliable, stable asset class during times of uncertainty.